NUPL Explained: What It Is and How Crypto Investors Use It

NUPL, or Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, is a key on-chain metric that shows whether Bitcoin holders are generally in profit or loss based on when they last moved their coins. Unlike price alone, NUPL tells you how the crowd is feeling — not what they’re saying, but what they’ve actually done. It’s not a guess. It’s math. It takes the total value of all Bitcoin if sold today, subtracts the total amount originally paid to acquire them, then divides by the total supply. The result? A simple number that tells you if the market is euphoric or desperate.

When NUPL is above 0.6, most Bitcoin has been bought at prices lower than today — meaning the majority are sitting on big gains. That’s often a red flag. History shows markets tend to roll over when NUPL hits that level. When it drops below 0.2, most coins are underwater. That’s when the weak hands have sold, and smart money starts looking. It’s not a buy signal by itself, but it’s one of the clearest signs that fear is peaking and opportunity might be near.

NUPL doesn’t care about news, tweets, or influencers. It only tracks on-chain activity — the real moves made by wallets. That’s why it’s used alongside tools like Glassnode and Nansen to cut through the noise. You won’t find NUPL on your trading app’s chart tab, but if you’re serious about timing the market, you’ll check it weekly. It’s not a crystal ball, but it’s one of the few indicators that actually reflects what millions of people have done with their coins.

What you’ll find in the posts below are real examples of how NUPL played out before major Bitcoin swings — and how it connects to other on-chain signals like whale movements, exchange outflows, and miner behavior. Some posts show NUPL peaking before crashes. Others reveal how it stayed low during bear markets, quietly building the foundation for the next rally. You’ll also see how people misuse it, confuse it with other metrics, or ignore it entirely — and why that costs them money.